Jakarta, RakyatNTT.ID — Bitcoin has shown remarkable strength since the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in 2022, climbing from its low of $15,800 in November 2022 to $114,300 today.

This surge, however, comes with an unusual twist. Historically, Federal Reserve rate cuts have boosted Bitcoin, but the latest 25 bps cut in mid-September 2025 drove BTC lower, briefly touching $108,600.

Fed’s Risk-Management Cut

The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark rate to 4.00%-4.25%, citing “risk management” concerns. Markets viewed this as a preventive move against potential economic slowdown rather than a direct response to severe downturns.

Still, the rate cut sparked investor caution. Analysts suggest the Fed’s move reflected concerns over rising unemployment claims and structural weaknesses in the U.S. economy, even as retail consumption remained strong.

Bitcoin Outlook Amid Uncertainty

The U.S., with the world’s largest GDP, continues to drive global liquidity. But political turbulence, shutdown risks, and regulatory shifts are adding uncertainty to the macroeconomic landscape.

Large investors are reportedly shifting to defensive strategies, prioritizing capital preservation over aggressive growth. By contrast, retail investors see the dip as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and equities at discounted levels.

The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle

Crypto markets tend to experience corrections 3–3.5 years after a cycle low — with the last trough in November 2022. This suggests that BTC could face downward pressure in the coming months, though upside potential remains if Bitcoin breaks above $125,000 in October and holds the level.

Traders are advised to monitor support levels closely. A fall below $100,000 could trigger heightened volatility, while a sustained rally above resistance may invite new speculative capital.

Diversification Strategy for Investors

Market experts recommend following diversified portfolio strategies, such as Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio, which spreads risk across:

  • Growth assets: stocks, crypto, and other risk-on instruments
  • Decline hedges: long-term bonds
  • Inflation hedges: commodities and inflation-linked bonds
  • Deflation hedges: large-cap equities and short-term bonds

The key lies in risk parity — balancing asset classes based not on nominal value, but on volatility and risk exposure.

With Bitcoin entering a critical technical phase and macroeconomic uncertainty looming, disciplined diversification could be the best shield for investors heading into 2026. (*/rnc)