Jakarta, RakyatNTT.ID – The past few weeks have been a thrilling period for traders holding gold and Bitcoin in their investment portfolios. Both assets have hit record-breaking highs, supported by a growing wave of investor confidence.

Gold prices soared to $3,900 per troy ounce (around Rp65 million) this week — a new all-time high. Meanwhile, on Sunday (October 5, 2025), Bitcoin surged to a historic peak of $125,000 (around Rp2 billion) before slightly retreating.

So far, 2025 has been a golden year for both commodities. Gold has seen its biggest rally since the 1970s, climbing more than 50% since January 1, while Bitcoin, despite volatility earlier in the year, has gained roughly one-third in value since the start of 2025.

Why Are Gold and Bitcoin Rising?

Gold has long been considered a safe-haven asset, favored during times of uncertainty. Its price has climbed more than 300% since late 2018, and several key factors are driving the current surge:

Geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs introduced in April raised concerns about the global economy, US debt sustainability, and the future of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Geopolitical tensions.

The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict and war in Gaza have fueled investor anxiety, pushing capital into safer assets like gold.

US government shutdown.

The prolonged federal shutdown has heightened fears over economic stability, making gold a more attractive hedge against potential fiscal fallout.

Weakening Japanese yen.

With Japan’s yen losing its safe-haven appeal following political shifts — including Sanae Takaichi’s election as Japan’s first female prime minister — investors have turned to gold as an alternative.

“The weakening yen due to Japan’s LDP election gave investors one less safe-haven option, and gold benefited,” said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, via Reuters.

Central Banks and ETFs Drive Gold Demand

While uncertainty plays a role, analysts say the real fuel behind the rally is the resurgent demand for gold-backed ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and massive central bank purchases.

According to Deutsche Bank, strong ETF inflows mean that “two powerful buyers — central banks and ETF investors — are driving gold prices higher.”

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reports that hedge funds now hold a record $73 billion (around Rp1,215 trillion) in gold positions, signaling unprecedented institutional confidence.

Bitcoin’s Record-Breaking Rally

Bitcoin’s surge to $125,000 is driven by a mix of political, institutional, and macroeconomic factors.

Trump’s reelection has bolstered optimism among crypto investors due to his pro-crypto stance.

Institutional investors — including hedge funds and asset managers — are increasing exposure to Bitcoin, viewing it as an alternative to the dollar and traditional assets.

Interest rate cut expectations have also fueled risk appetite, pushing more money into digital assets.

“This time, the US government shutdown is a significant driver,” said Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank.

He added that Bitcoin’s recent rally reflects its correlation with the US Treasury term premium, a measure of long-term investor confidence in the American economy.

Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with only two declines recorded since 2013 — adding seasonal momentum to this year’s surge.

Will the Rally Continue?

Market watchers are largely optimistic that both gold and Bitcoin will continue their upward trajectory.

“I expect Bitcoin to keep rising during the US government shutdown and soon reach $135,000 (around Rp2.25 billion),” predicted Kendrick.

For gold, HSBC projects the rally could extend into 2026, fueled by continued official sector buying and sustained institutional demand.

The World Gold Council (WGC) backs this outlook, revealing that 95% of central bank reserve managers expect global gold holdings to increase in the next 12 months.

With such strong demand from both ETFs and central banks, many analysts believe gold could soon break the $4,000 per ounce threshold (around Rp66.6 million). (*/rnc)